Analysing air transport connectivity in Africa through airline decisions: a choice modelling approach

TL;DR

This study analyzes how airline seat capacity decisions affect air connectivity among 267 African cities, revealing carrier preferences, structural barriers, and the potential for policy improvements in the continent's aviation sector.

Contribution

First application of discrete-continuous capacity-supply modelling in African aviation, providing novel insights into airline decision-making and connectivity barriers.

Findings

African carriers offer the best intra-African connectivity.

Carriers show less flexibility in route networks.

Significant national carrier preference limits cross-border cooperation.

Abstract

This research tries to understand how seat capacity on routes connecting 267 African cities is distributed across airlines by analysing supply decisions between 2016 and 2022. The paper compiles an Africa-specific database on seat capacity by origin-destination pair and year, using revealed preference data for one week in November each year extracted from the Official Aviation Guide (OAG). Supplemented with socio-economic and historical data such as GDP per capita, market size, predominant language, and colonial ties, the research applies the extended Multiple Discrete-Continuous (eMDC) choice model. The model results show that African carriers are, indeed, the ones offering the best connectivity for intra-African travel, but they also show less flexibility in their route networks. As expected, there is significant preferential treatment for national carriers regarding serving their home countries. The study highlights the structural and regulatory barriers that continue to constrain intra-African air connectivity, despite policies such as the Yamoussoukro Decision, designed to liberalise the sector. The dominance of airlines in serving only their home markets suggests a lack of cross-border cooperation and competition, limiting the potential for an integrated, efficient African aviation market. This not only restricts mobility across the continent but also hampers broader economic growth. The model estimates are statistically significant at a 95\% confidence level, supporting the use of these findings for informed policy and strategic decision-making. This paper represents the first application of discrete-continuous modelling using capacity-supply data within the African aviation context and offers policy-relevant insights into improving air connectivity.