La ley del descenso tendencial de la tasa de ganancia: Evidencia emp\'irica para la econom\'ia espa\~nola

TL;DR

This paper empirically tests Marx's law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall in Spain from 1960 to 2024, using macroeconomic data transformed into Marxist variables, confirming the law's validity.

Contribution

It introduces a method to transform Spanish national accounts into Marxist variables and provides the first empirical evidence supporting Marx's law in the Spanish economy.

Findings

Organic composition of capital increased over time

Rate of surplus value slightly decreased

Rate of profit showed a tendential decline with cyclical fluctuations

Abstract

This article examines the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall in the Spanish economy between 1960 and 2024, considering the organic composition of capital and the rate of surplus value as central variables. Its aim is to determine whether this law, formulated by Marx in Capital (Vol. III), continues to operate in the contemporary context. The methodology consists of transforming orthodox macroeconomic categories derived from the Spanish National Accounts (CNE), available in BDMACRO, into Marxist variables: constant capital ($c$), variable capital ($v$), and surplus value ($pv$). Based on these, historical series of the organic composition of capital ($q$), the rate of surplus value ($pv'$), and the rate of profit ($g'$) are constructed, adjusted to constant prices to ensure temporal coherence and comparability. The results show a sustained increase in $q$ and a slight decrease in $pv'$, generating a tendential decline in $g'$ with cyclical fluctuations associated with specific crises. The conclusions empirically confirm the validity of the law in Spain, highlighting the historical limits of capitalism and providing quantitative evidence on the structural dynamics of profitability.