Who will import hydrogen in 2050? Global assessment with China and US case studies

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the global potential for hydrogen import in 2050, highlighting regional differences, resource availability, and the likelihood of a geographically concentrated hydrogen trade network based on renewable energy potentials.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive assessment combining GIS-based renewable energy modeling with regional case studies of China and the US, offering new insights into future hydrogen trade dynamics.

Findings

Limited prospects for a fully global hydrogen market

Certain European countries likely to remain net importers

China and US may follow divergent hydrogen sourcing pathways

Abstract

This study assesses the global hydrogen import potential in 2050 by looking at the renewable hydrogen production potential in prospective import-oriented countries. Renewable energy potentials calculated with a GIS based model and 2050 primary energy consumption projections are used to identify candidate importers by comparing it with expected demand. Two approaches are applied: (1) a meta-analysis of literature on hydrogen production potential and demand for the identified countries, and (2) detailed regional analyses for the United States and China. The results suggest limited prospects for a fully global hydrogen market, although certain countries, such as Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, are likely to remain net importers. By contrast, many Asian countries have enough renewable resources to decarbonise their energy systems. China and the United States may follow divergent pathways: while the United States is well placed to meet its overall demand, using its own resources, it can still benefit from regional connections with neighbouring countries. China is facing strong demand in its eastern regions, so it may source cost-effective renewable hydrogen from foreign countries instead of relying solely on domestic production. Overall, the findings suggest that hydrogen trade will likely remain regionally concentrated, shaped by the interplay of renewable resource distribution, energy demand, other available hydrogen production pathways, and infrastructure constraints.