From Prediction to Foresight: The Role of AI in Designing Responsible Futures

TL;DR

This paper explores how AI can support responsible foresight by enhancing policymakers' ability to anticipate and shape sustainable futures through ethical, human-centered computational modeling and scenario analysis.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of responsible computational foresight, establishing foundational principles and presenting AI-driven tools for ethical future planning.

Findings

AI enhances scenario analysis for better risk evaluation

Responsible foresight requires integrating social, environmental, and ethical considerations

AI supports, rather than replaces, human judgment in policymaking

Abstract

In an era marked by rapid technological advancements and complex global challenges, responsible foresight has emerged as an essential framework for policymakers aiming to navigate future uncertainties and shape the future. Responsible foresight entails the ethical anticipation of emerging opportunities and risks, with a focus on fostering proactive, sustainable, and accountable future design. This paper coins the term "responsible computational foresight", examining the role of human-centric artificial intelligence and computational modeling in advancing responsible foresight, establishing a set of foundational principles for this new field and presenting a suite of AI-driven foresight tools currently shaping it. AI, particularly in conjunction with simulations and scenario analysis, enhances policymakers' ability to address uncertainty, evaluate risks, and devise strategies geared toward sustainable, resilient futures. However, responsible foresight extends beyond mere technical forecasting; it demands a nuanced understanding of the interdependencies within social, environmental, economic and political systems, alongside a commitment to ethical, long-term decision-making that supports human intelligence. We argue that AI will play a role as a supportive tool in responsible, human-centered foresight, complementing rather than substituting policymaker judgment to enable the proactive shaping of resilient and ethically sound futures. This paper advocates for the thoughtful integration of AI into foresight practices to empower policymakers and communities as they confront the grand challenges of the 21st century.