City-level energy and emission assessment based on 20+ million electric vehicle registrations in China

TL;DR

This study provides a detailed, high-resolution assessment of electric vehicle adoption and emissions in 295 Chinese cities, projecting future trends and highlighting regional disparities and efficiency metrics.

Contribution

It is the first to analyze over 20 million EV registrations across China, offering empirical data and projections for emissions and energy use up to 2035.

Findings

EVs are significantly more energy efficient than internal combustion vehicles.

Carbon intensities of EVs vary widely across provinces.

Emissions are projected to peak around 2030 and decline by 2035.

Abstract

China, the world's largest electric vehicle (EV) market, plays a pivotal role in global decarbonization of the transport sector. We present the first high-resolution assessment of EV adoption in 295 cities, utilizing more than 20 million registrations of 586 EV models tracked monthly from 2022 to 2024 and projecting transition pathways to 2035. Real-world data reveal that EVs are 30.9-212.8 megajoules per 100 km more energy efficient than internal combustion vehicles, yet their carbon intensities range from 18.2 to 270.4 gCO2/km among provinces. The limited electrification of hybrids means that gasoline still accounts for 44% of EV energy use. Scenario projections suggest that emissions will peak about 2030 at 21.1-30.9 megatonnes of CO2 and decline by 2035 under continued market transition. The findings establish an empirical foundation for accurate emissions accounting, emphasize the need to reduce regional disparities in adoptability, and offer globally relevant insights for road-transport decarbonization.