Arriving Young, Leaving Old(er): Age-Structured International Migration on Subnational Scale in Austria

TL;DR

This paper presents an age-structured model for international migration in Austria that estimates both arrivals and exits using high-resolution data, revealing predictable migration patterns and population rejuvenation effects.

Contribution

The study introduces a novel model that captures both migration inflows and outflows at a subnational level, incorporating age and nationality, based on detailed administrative data.

Findings

Migration rejuvenates Austria's population with younger migrants.

Younger migrants tend to move to cities, older migrants are more evenly distributed.

Exits are a consistent and predictable feature across all migrant groups.

Abstract

Modelling migration is complicated, as people move for many reasons. Some leave their country for the first time, others return to places they once called home, or move on to new destinations. However, most models focus only on who arrives, missing the full picture of how migrant populations evolve. We introduce a model for diaspora flows that estimates both arrivals and exits using daily migration flow rates, disaggregated by age and nationality. Drawing on high-resolution administrative data from Austria covering over 1.8 million foreign nationals, the model allocates these movements across more than 2,000 municipalities based on the size of local diaspora communities. We find that exits are not exceptions but a consistent and predictable feature across all groups. Migration rejuvenates Austria's population, as both arriving and departing migrants are younger than the average resident. This effect has distinct age-geography patterns: younger migrants are drawn to cities, while older migrants are more evenly distributed in the country. By capturing both arrivals and exits simultaneously, our approach provides a more comprehensive and interpretable picture of migration dynamics, how populations change over time, and how they are influenced by space, age, and national origins.