Regularity as Structural Amplifier, Not Trap: A Causal and Archetype-Based Analysis of Dropout in a Constrained Engineering Curriculum

TL;DR

This study uses causal analysis on longitudinal student data to show that curriculum regularity amplifies pre-existing vulnerabilities, rather than trapping capable students, suggesting targeted interventions can improve dropout rates.

Contribution

It introduces a causal framework combining curriculum topology and causal estimation to challenge the trap hypothesis in engineering education.

Findings

Academic lag increases dropout risk overall.

High-ability students are less affected by lag.

Friction disproportionately harms vulnerable student trajectories.

Abstract

Engineering programmes, particularly in Latin America, are often governed by rigid curricula and strict regularity rules that are claimed to create a Regularity Trap for capable students. This study tests that causal hypothesis using the CAPIRE framework, a leakage-aware pipeline that integrates curriculum topology and causal estimation. Using longitudinal data from 1,343 civil engineering students in Argentina, we formalize academic lag (accumulated friction) as a treatment and academic velocity as an ability proxy. A manual LinearDML estimator is employed to assess the average (ATE) and conditional (CATE) causal effects of lag on subsequent dropout, controlling for macro shocks (strikes, inflation). Results confirm that academic lag significantly increases dropout risk overall (ATE = 0.0167, p < 0.0001). However, the effect decreases sharply for high-velocity (high-ability) students, contradicting the universal Trap hypothesis. Archetype analysis (UMAP/DBSCAN) shows that friction disproportionately harms trajectories already characterized by high initial friction and unstable progression. 8 We conclude that regularity rules function as a Structural Amplifier of pre-existing vulnerability rather than a universal trap. This has direct implications for engineering curriculum design, demanding targeted slack allocation and intervention policies to reduce friction at core basic-cycle courses