Thermodynamics + Natural Selection = Bayesian Inference

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that populations of energy-harvesting organisms naturally update their environmental beliefs via Bayesian inference, linking thermodynamics and natural selection.

Contribution

It reveals that reproductive success based on free energy conversion leads to Bayesian updating of environmental probabilities.

Findings

Organisms' reproductive rates are proportional to free energy conversion.

Environmental state probabilities are updated according to Bayes' rule.

Links thermodynamics with Bayesian inference in biological populations.

Abstract

Consider a population of organisms that harvest free energy from their environment to reproduce. This paper shows that if the organisms' reproductive rates are proportional to the amount of physical free energy that they can convert into reproductive work, then the implicit probabilities that the organisms assign to environmental states are updated according to Bayes' rule.