KNN and Time Series Based Prediction of Power Generation from Renewable Resources

TL;DR

This paper develops and compares KNN and SARIMA models for renewable energy power generation forecasting using 30 years of multi-source data, addressing intermittency and nonlinearity challenges to improve prediction reliability.

Contribution

It introduces a machine learning framework utilizing KNN and SARIMA models with extensive historical data to enhance renewable energy forecasting accuracy.

Findings

Both models achieved comparable error metrics.

Models showed unique tendencies under different conditions.

Long-term data improved model calibration and seasonal effect capture.

Abstract

As the world shifts towards utilizing natural resources for electricity generation, there is need to enhance forecasting systems to guarantee a stable electricity provision and to incorporate the generated power into the network systems. This work provides a machine learning environment for renewable energy forecasting that prevents the flaws which are usually experienced in the actual process; intermittency, nonlinearity and intricacy in nature which is difficult to grasp by ordinary existing forecasting procedures. Leveraging a comprehensive approximately 30-year dataset encompassing multiple renewable energy sources, our research evaluates two distinct approaches: K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) model and Non-Linear Autoregressive distributed called with Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to forecast total power generation using the solar, wind, and hydroelectric resources. The framework uses high temporal resolution and multiple parameters of the environment to improve the predictions. The fact that both the models in terms of error metrics were equally significant and had some unique tendencies at certain circumstances. The long history allows for better model calibration of temporal fluctuations and seasonal and climatic effects on power generation. The reliability enhancement in the prediction function, which benefits from 30 years of data, has value to grid operators, energy traders, and those establishing renewable energy policies and standards concerning reliability