Opinion Dynamics Models for Sentiment Evolution in Weibo Blogs

TL;DR

This paper models sentiment evolution in Weibo blogs using opinion dynamics, revealing that follower sentiment follows iterative averaging influenced by network homophily, with implications for marketing strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a dynamical model of sentiment evolution based on opinion dynamics, incorporating network effects and distinguishing between expressed and private opinions.

Findings

Sentiment trajectories follow iterative averaging principles.

Modified opinion models fit sentiment evolution closely.

Homophily influences influence structures and sentiment clustering.

Abstract

Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.