Semiconductor Industry Trend Prediction with Event Intervention Based on LSTM Model in Sentiment-Enhanced Time Series Data

TL;DR

This paper presents an LSTM-based model integrating sentiment analysis of textual data and event interventions to accurately predict semiconductor industry trends, specifically focusing on TSMC's market developments and technological advancements.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach combining sentiment analysis with event intervention in time series data for industry trend forecasting, enhancing prediction accuracy over traditional methods.

Findings

Successfully predicted TSMC's wafer technology development

Identified potential threats in the global market

Aligned predictions with TSMC's product releases and international news

Abstract

The innovation of the study is that the deep learning method and sentiment analysis are integrated in traditional business model analysis and forecasting, and the research subject is TSMC for industry trend prediction of semiconductor industry in Taiwan. For the rapid market changes and development of wafer technologies of semiconductor industry, traditional data analysis methods not perform well in the high variety and time series data. Textual data and time series data were collected from seasonal reports of TSMC including financial information. Textual data through sentiment analysis by considering the event intervention both from internal events of the company and the external global events. Using the sentiment-enhanced time series data, the LSTM model was adopted for predicting industry trend of TSMC. The prediction results reveal significant development of wafer technology of TSMC and the potential threatens in the global market, and matches the product released news of TSMC and the international news. The contribution of the work performed accurately in industry trend prediction of the semiconductor industry by considering both the internal and external event intervention, and the prediction results provide valuable information of semiconductor industry both in research and business aspects.