The Liquid Buffer: Multi-Year Storage for Defossilization and Energy Security under Climate Uncertainty

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that multi-year liquid hydrocarbon storage, modeled with extensive climate data, significantly enhances energy security and reduces costs in Europe's renewable energy system under climate uncertainty.

Contribution

It introduces a scalable stochastic model accounting for 51,840 climate years and highlights multi-year liquid hydrocarbon storage as a key strategy for energy security and cost reduction.

Findings

Multi-year storage reduces system costs by 4.1%.

Fossil imports decrease by 86%.

Unserved energy remains very low at 0.0035 per thousand.

Abstract

The climate-driven uncertainty of renewable generation and electricity demand challenges energy security in net-zero energy systems. By introducing a scalable stochastic model that implicitly accounts for 51'840 climate years, this paper identifies multi-year storage of liquid hydrocarbons as a key option for managing climate uncertainty and ensuring energy security. In Europe, multi-year storage reduces system costs by 4.1%, fossil imports by 86%, and curtailment by 60%. The benefit of multi-year storage is that a renewable surplus in one year is not curtailed but converted to synthetic oil, with hydrogen as an intermediate product, and stored to balance a future deficit. We find that the required energy capacity for liquid hydrocarbons is 525 TWh, a quarter of the European Union's current oil and gas reserves, complemented by 116 TWh for hydrogen storage. Security of supply remains high and unserved energy only amounts to 0.0035 per thousand, well below the common target of 0.02 per thousand.