High-resolution hierarchical PV system performance modeling in urban environments

TL;DR

This paper presents a high-resolution hierarchical modeling framework for PV systems in urban environments, accurately predicting performance and highlighting the limitations of conventional models under shading conditions.

Contribution

It introduces a detailed, validated modeling approach that captures dynamic effects and mismatch losses, improving accuracy over traditional coarser models.

Findings

Conventional models overestimate power by up to 163% under shading.

The proposed model achieves R2 > 0.90 in predictions.

MLPEs can boost energy yield by over 20% in shaded conditions.

Abstract

Accurate performance modeling of PV systems in urban environments is a significant challenge due to complex partial shading. This study introduces a high-resolution, hierarchical modeling framework that provides detailed insights from the solar cell to the system level. Rigorously validated against field-test data from calibrated equipment, the model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting minute-wised dynamic electrical characteristics (R2 > 0.90). A key finding is the critical shortcoming of conventional, coarser-resolution models under realistic shading; these are shown to overestimate the actual string operating power by up to 163% and the monthly energy yield by up to 54%. The proposed framework avoids these errors by precisely capturing mismatch losses and the time-varying phenomena of system components, such as bypass diode activations. Furthermore, the model accurately quantifies the effectiveness of mitigation technologies, showing that Module-Level Power Electronics (MLPEs) can increase the monthly energy yield of a heavily shaded string by over 20%. This research provides a crucial tool for reliable system design, accurate power forecasting, and the optimization of PV systems in complex urban settings.