Climate determinism reborn

TL;DR

This paper critically examines the resurgence of environmental determinism in popular culture, arguing that fears of catastrophic climate change are often based on flawed analyses and that economic impacts will be limited to small economies.

Contribution

It provides a critical analysis of climate determinism, highlighting methodological issues in existing literature and offering a nuanced view of climate policy impacts.

Findings

Climate policy unlikely to dominate major economies

Small economies may be overwhelmed by carbon credit exports

Critique of methodological flaws in climate change impact studies

Abstract

Environmental determinism in the past followed from the belief that the gods bestowed political power and the best possible weather on the sponsors of early scholars. Although later discredited in academia because of the associations with racism and the lack of support for any monocausal explanation of history, environmental determinism in popular culture has morphed into the unfounded idea of catastrophic climate change. Although a handful of papers in the literature on the economic impact of climate change appear to support this concern, closer inspection reveals severe methodological and conceptual issues with the analyses. Climate policy will not dominate major economies, because politicians will pull back before it does, but small economies may be overwhelmed by the export of carbon credits.