Violent event-related fatality patterns in Ethiopia: a Bayesian spatiotemporal perspective

TL;DR

This study applies a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to analyze violent event-related fatalities in Ethiopia from 1997 to 2022, revealing regional patterns and a decline in fatalities over time, aiding policy decisions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel Bayesian spatiotemporal statistical method to map and analyze violence-related fatalities across Ethiopian regions.

Findings

Nine regions have high probabilities (>0.6) of fatality occurrence.

Five regions exceed a 0.7 probability threshold for fatalities.

The probability of more than 20 deaths per event decreased from 0.401 in 2020 to 0.148 in 2022.

Abstract

Fatalities resulting from violence in armed conflict have long been a significant public health issue in Ethiopia. Despite the severity of this problem, more comprehensive quantitative scientific studies need to be conducted to elucidate the sequence and dynamics of these occurrences. In response, this study introduces a spatio-temporal statistical method designed to uncover the patterns of fatalities associated with violent events in Ethiopia. The research employs a two-part zero-inflated Bayesian generalized additive mixed model, which integrates a spatio-temporal component to map the fatality patterns across Ethiopian regions. The dataset utilized originates from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, covering fatality counts related to violent events from 1997 to 2022. The analysis revealed that nine out of thirteen administrative regions exhibited a probability greater than 0.6 for fatality occurrence due to violent events, with five regions surpassing a 0.7 probability threshold. These five regions include Benishangul Gumz, Gambela, Oromia, Somali, and the South West Ethiopian People's Region. Notably, the Tigray region displayed the highest probability (0.558) of experiencing more than 20 deaths per violent event, followed by the Benishangul Gumz region with a probability of 0.306. Encouragingly, the findings also indicate an average decline in fatalities per violent event over time. Specifically, the probability of more than 20 deaths per event was 0.401 in 2020, which decreased to 0.148 by 2022. These insights are invaluable for the government, policymakers, political leaders, and traditional or religious authorities in Ethiopia, enabling them to make informed, strategic decisions to mitigate and ultimately prevent violence-related fatalities in the country.