Determinants of financial and digital inclusion in West and Central Africa: Evidence from binary models with cross-validation

TL;DR

This paper investigates the key factors influencing financial and digital inclusion in West and Central Africa using advanced binary models with cross-validation, revealing regional differences and country-specific insights.

Contribution

It introduces a robust analytical approach combining country analysis with validation techniques, providing new insights into regional determinants of inclusion.

Findings

Gender, education, income, and residence significantly affect inclusion in West Africa.

In Central Africa, age and rural residence are key determinants, with gender less significant.

Ghana is the most financially inclusive country, while Nigeria excels in account ownership and savings.

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of financial and digital inclusion in West and Central Africa using the World Bank Findex 2021 data. Unlike prior works that rely solely on traditional logit and probit models, we combine country-by-country analysis with robustness checks including K-fold cross-validation and Vuong test. Three samples were considered : a full sample combin- ing both regions and two separate subsamples for West and Central Africa. The results indicate that gender, educational attainment, income level, and place of residence are significant factors influencing both financial and digital inclusion in the full sample and the West African subsam- ple. In the Central African subsample, gender is not significant; however, age, education, income, and rural residence emerge as key determinants of financial and digital inclusion. Overall, Ghana stands out as the most financially inclusive country, although it trails Senegal in terms of credit access and digital payment use. Nigeria leads in formal account ownership and formal savings but falls considerably behind Ghana in mobile money account ownership and digital payments. Central African countries generally report lower levels of inclusion compared to West Africa, with Cameroon performing comparatively better.