On the coincidence between the close passage of HD7977 and the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition

TL;DR

This paper explores how the close passage of star HD7977 2.47 million years ago may have triggered a comet shower impacting Earth, potentially influencing environmental changes during the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition.

Contribution

It introduces an analytical method to estimate comet impact probabilities from stellar flybys, reducing computational effort compared to traditional N-body simulations.

Findings

Impact probability of 1 km comets increased by an order of magnitude.

Close flybys (around 2,300 AU) significantly enhance Earth's impact risk.

Threshold diameter for impact probability of 1 is approximately 2.25 km.

Abstract

The Oort Cloud's dynamical evolution is significantly influenced by both the galactic tide and stellar flybys. This study investigates the particular case of HD7977's close encounter 2.47 Myr ago, which likely repopulated the Inner Oort Cloud and potentially triggered a significant comet shower on Earth. Our results demonstrate that the shower's intensity strongly depends on HD7977's impact parameter ($b$), with possible flyby distances ranging from 2,300 AU to $\sim$ 13,000 AU. For the closest approach ($b \sim 2,300$ AU), the terrestrial impact probability of 1 km comets increases by an order of magnitude compared to the steady state, slightly exceeding the asteroid impact probability at this size scale. We propose an analytical method to compute the probability of comet showers impacting Earth, which saves considerable computation time compared to N-body simulations. We identify a threshold diameter $D_0 = 2.25$ km for which yields $P = 1$ in our model, with $D_0$ following a logarithmic dependence on $b$. These findings suggest that HD7977's flyby may have caused an enhanced comet flux during the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition, which could plausibly be related to the environmental changes at this era.