Probabilistic Wildfire Susceptibility from Remote Sensing Using Random Forests and SHAP

TL;DR

This study develops a wildfire risk mapping method for California using Random Forests and SHAP, providing interpretable insights into key environmental factors influencing wildfire susceptibility.

Contribution

It introduces an RF-SHAP framework that combines predictive accuracy with explainability, enhancing wildfire risk assessment and decision-making.

Findings

RF model achieved near-perfect discrimination for grasslands and forests.

SHAP analysis identified soil organic carbon, tree cover, and NDVI as key drivers in forests.

LST, elevation, and vegetation indices were dominant in grasslands.

Abstract

Wildfires pose a significant global threat to ecosystems worldwide, with California experiencing recurring fires due to various factors, including climate, topographical features, vegetation patterns, and human activities. This study aims to develop a comprehensive wildfire risk map for California by applying the random forest (RF) algorithm, augmented with Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) through Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to interpret model predictions. Model performance was assessed using both spatial and temporal validation strategies. The RF model demonstrated strong predictive performance, achieving near-perfect discrimination for grasslands (AUC = 0.996) and forests (AUC = 0.997). Spatial cross-validation revealed moderate transferability, yielding ROC-AUC values of 0.6155 for forests and 0.5416 for grasslands. In contrast, temporal split validation showed enhanced generalization, especially for forests (ROC-AUC = 0.6615, PR-AUC = 0.8423). SHAP-based XAI analysis identified key ecosystem-specific drivers: soil organic carbon, tree cover, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) emerged as the most influential in forests, whereas Land Surface Temperature (LST), elevation, and vegetation health indices were dominant in grasslands. District-level classification revealed that Central Valley and Northern Buttes districts had the highest concentration of high-risk grasslands, while Northern Buttes and North Coast Redwoods dominated forested high-risk areas. This RF-SHAP framework offers a robust, comprehensible, and adaptable method for assessing wildfire risks, enabling informed decisions and creating targeted strategies to mitigate dangers.