Regret, Uncertainty, and Bounded Rationality in Norm-Driven Decisions

TL;DR

This paper presents an agent-based model exploring how regret, uncertainty, and social norms influence vaccination decisions during epidemics, highlighting the importance of intermediate rationality and social cues.

Contribution

It introduces a unified framework integrating psychological and economic factors to explain vaccination behavior under uncertainty and social influence.

Findings

Intermediate rationality optimizes collective outcomes.

Moderate regret encourages adaptive decision-making.

Social norms enhance cooperation under uncertainty.

Abstract

This study introduces an agent-based model to study how regret, uncertainty, and social norms interact to shape vaccination behavior during epidemics. The model integrates three behavioral mechanisms, anticipated regret, evolving norms, and uncertainty-dependent trust, within a unified learning framework. Grounded in psychology and behavioral economics, it captures how individuals make probabilistic choices influenced by material payoffs, fear, trust, and social approval. Simulations of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered process show that collective outcomes are best when agents display an intermediate level of rationality; they deliberate enough to respond to risk but remain flexible enough to adapt, avoiding the instability of both random and overly rigid decision-making. Regret exerts a dual influence; moderate levels encourage adaptive self-correction, while excessive regret or greed destabilize choices. Uncertainty has a similarly non-linear effect; moderate ambiguity promotes caution, but too much uncertainty disrupts coordination. Social norms restore cooperation by compensating for incomplete information. Personal norms guide behavior when individuals have reliable information and feel confident in their judgments. Injunctive norms-signals of others' approval-become more influential under uncertainty, while descriptive norms, which arise from observing others' actions, provide informational cues that help people decide what to do when direct knowledge is limited. Overall, the model provides a psychologically grounded, computationally explicit account of how emotion, cognition, and social norms govern preventive behavior during epidemics.