CaReTS: A Multi-Task Framework Unifying Classification and Regression for Time Series Forecasting

TL;DR

CaReTS is a multi-task framework that unifies classification and regression to improve both accuracy and interpretability in multi-step time series forecasting.

Contribution

It introduces a dual-stream architecture with uncertainty-aware multi-task loss, integrating various temporal encoders for enhanced forecasting and trend classification.

Findings

Outperforms state-of-the-art forecasting models.

Achieves higher trend classification accuracy.

Provides interpretable trend and deviation predictions.

Abstract

Recent advances in deep forecasting models have achieved remarkable performance, yet most approaches still struggle to provide both accurate predictions and interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. This paper proposes CaReTS, a novel multi-task learning framework that combines classification and regression tasks for multi-step time series forecasting problems. The framework adopts a dual-stream architecture, where a classification branch learns the stepwise trend into the future, while a regression branch estimates the corresponding deviations from the latest observation of the target variable. The dual-stream design provides more interpretable predictions by disentangling macro-level trends from micro-level deviations in the target variable. To enable effective learning in output prediction, deviation estimation, and trend classification, we design a multi-task loss with uncertainty-aware weighting to adaptively balance the contribution of each task. Furthermore, four variants (CaReTS1--4) are instantiated under this framework to incorporate mainstream temporal modelling encoders, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), and Transformers. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CaReTS outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) algorithms in forecasting accuracy, while achieving higher trend classification performance.