The First Mathematical Model for Elk Wolf Interaction in Yellowstone National Park Using the E-SINDy Algorithm

TL;DR

This paper develops the first data-driven mathematical model of elk and wolf interactions in Yellowstone using the E-SINDy algorithm, revealing complex bifurcation behaviors and ecological implications.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of sparse regression modeling to capture predator-prey dynamics over a multi-decade period in Yellowstone.

Findings

Identification of parameter ranges for species coexistence and extinction.

Detection of bifurcations indicating shifts between stable states and oscillations.

Insights into ecological parameters influencing population dynamics.

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the prey predator dynamics of the elk wolf system in northern Yellowstone National Park, USA, using a data driven modeling approach. We used yearly population data for elk and wolves from 1995 to 2022 to construct a mathematical model using a sparse regression modeling framework. To the best of our knowledge, no previous work has applied this framework to capture elk wolf interactions over this time period. Our modeling pipeline integrates Gaussian process regression for data smoothing, sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics for model discovery, and model selection techniques to identify the most suitable mathematical representation. The resulting model is analyzed for its nonlinear dynamics with ecologically meaningful parameters. Stability and bifurcation analyzes are then performed to understand the systems qualitative behavior. A saddle node bifurcation identifies parameter ranges where both species can coexist, while regions outside this range may lead to the extinction of one or both populations. Hopf and saddle node bifurcations together delineate zones of stable co existence, periodic oscillations, and extinction scenarios. Furthermore, co dimension two bifurcations, including Bogdanov Takens and cusp bifurcations, are explored by varying two parameters simultaneously. Ecologically, these bifurcations reflect the complex interplay between wolf pressure and elk defence mechanisms, such as grouping or herd behavior. They suggested that small changes in ecological parameters can lead to sudden shifts in population outcomes ranging from stable co existence to extinction or oscillatory cycles.