Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment

TL;DR

The Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE) is a transparent, real-time, physics-based protocol for testing volcanic eruption predictability through cryptographically secured forecasts and open verification.

Contribution

It introduces a novel, reproducible framework inspired by financial experiments, applying cryptographic timestamping and delayed disclosure to volcanology forecasts.

Findings

Establishes a transparent, cryptographically secured forecasting protocol.

Enables open verification of eruption predictions.

Aims to improve scientific rigor in eruption forecasting.

Abstract

We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based framework. The experiment is inspired by the Financial Bubble Experiment, adapting its principles of digital authentication, timestamped archiving, and delayed disclosure to the field of volcanology. The EFE implements a reproducible protocol in which each forecast is securely timestamped and cryptographically hashed (SHA-256) before being made public. The corresponding forecast documents, containing detailed diagnostics and probabilistic analyses, will be released after the next eruption or, if the forecasts are proven incorrect, at a later date. This procedure ensures full transparency while preventing premature interpretation or controversy surrounding public predictions. Forecasts will be issued monthly, or more frequently if required, using real-time monitoring data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative's Regional Cabled Array at Axial Seamount. By committing to publish all forecasts, successful or not, the EFE establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting. The ultimate goal is to transform eruption prediction into a cumulative and testable science founded on open verification, reproducibility, and physical understanding.