Tipping to Climate Action: Qualitative Insights from a Social-Climate Model with a Committed Minority

TL;DR

This paper introduces a dynamic social-climate feedback model showing how a committed minority can influence climate action and alter future temperature predictions through social and climatic interactions.

Contribution

It develops a novel framework integrating social behavior and climate variability, highlighting the impact of minority commitment on climate policy shifts.

Findings

A committed minority can overturn social inaction on climate change.

Social-climate feedback significantly affects future temperature projections.

Timing of social convention shifts influences climate outcomes.

Abstract

It is well-established that human activity is driving extreme weather patterns, and that these extreme events influence human behaviour. However, few models allow for human behaviours and the climate to dynamically interact. The models presented in this paper expand on previous work and serve as an initial framework to extend current models by using a dynamic social-climate feedback loop. First, we introduce a social model to determine the conditions under which a committed minority can overturn a pre-established social convention. Second, we modify an existing climate model to include climatic variability. Lastly, we formulate a social-climate feedback model to study the interplay between human behaviour and the climate. Our results demonstrate that the social-climate feedback loop may be important in accurately predicting future temperatures, in contrast to the standard approach where human behaviour is a priori. Additionally, we find that a committed minority plays a vital role in shifting public opinion towards climate action and that the time at which the social convention of climate inaction is overturned has a large impact on future temperatures.