Climate Downscaling of Tropical Cyclone Intensity using Deep Learning

TL;DR

This paper explores the use of deep learning, specifically CNNs, to improve the downscaling of tropical cyclone intensity from coarse climate data, showing promising results over traditional vortex detection methods.

Contribution

It demonstrates that deep learning models can effectively downscale TC intensity and structure from coarse climate data, capturing environmental influences beyond traditional methods.

Findings

DL models outperform vortex detection in TC intensity estimation

Root-mean-square errors range from 3-9 ms$^{-1}$ for wind

Errors indicate limitations of 0.5-degree climate data for detailed TC analysis

Abstract

Traditional methods for enhancing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from climate model outputs or projections have primarily relied on either dynamical or statistical downscaling. With recent advances in deep learning (DL) techniques, a natural question is whether DL can provide an alternative approach for improving TC intensity estimation from climate data. Using a common DL architecture based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) and selecting a set of key environmental features, we show that both TC intensity and structure can be effectively downscaled from climate reanalysis data as compared to common vortex detection methods, even when applied to coarse-resolution (0.5-degree) data. Our results thus highlight that TC intensity and structure are governed not only by its internal dynamics but also by local environments during TC development, for which DL models can learn and capture beyond the potential intensity framework. The performance of our DL model depends on several factors such as data sampling strategy, season, or the stage of TC development, with root-mean-square errors ranging from 3-9 ms$^{-1}$ for maximum 10 m wind and 10-20 hPa for minimum central pressure. Although these errors are better than direct vortex detection methods, their wide ranges also suggest that 0.5-degree resolution climate data may contain limited TC information for DL models to learn from, regardless of model optimizations or architectures. Possible improvements and challenges in addressing the lack of fine-scale TC information in coarse resolution climate reanalysis datasets will be discussed.