Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease for Diabetic Patients with Machine Learning and Deep Learning Techniques

TL;DR

This study develops and compares machine learning and deep learning models for predicting cardiovascular disease risk in diabetic patients, achieving high accuracy and recall to support clinical decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces a hybrid deep learning approach combined with traditional ML models for improved CVD risk prediction in diabetics.

Findings

XGBoost achieved 90.50% accuracy.

LSTM model achieved perfect recall and high accuracy.

Hybrid CNN-LSTM models showed promising results.

Abstract

Accurate prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is crucial for healthcare institutions. This study addresses the growing prevalence of diabetes and its strong link to heart disease by proposing an efficient CVD risk prediction model for diabetic patients using machine learning (ML) and hybrid deep learning (DL) approaches. The BRFSS dataset was preprocessed by removing duplicates, handling missing values, identifying categorical and numerical features, and applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for feature extraction. Several ML models, including Decision Trees (DT), Random Forest (RF), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), AdaBoost, and XGBoost, were implemented, with XGBoost achieving the highest accuracy of 0.9050. Various DL models, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Deep Neural Networks (DNN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), as well as hybrid models combining CNN with LSTM, BiLSTM, and GRU, were also explored. Some of these models achieved perfect recall (1.00), with the LSTM model achieving the highest accuracy of 0.9050. Our research highlights the effectiveness of ML and DL models in predicting CVD risk among diabetic patients, automating and enhancing clinical decision-making. High accuracy and F1 scores demonstrate these models' potential to improve personalized risk management and preventive strategies.