Election and Subjective Well-Being:Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

TL;DR

This study examines how the 2024 U.S. presidential election impacted mental health and life satisfaction, revealing a significant decline in subjective well-being post-election, especially among certain demographic groups, due to political polarization.

Contribution

It provides causal evidence that electoral outcomes and political polarization can cause lasting psychological stress, using a regression discontinuity design on survey data.

Findings

Post-election decline in subjective well-being observed

Impact is stronger among women, non-White, urban, and educated individuals

Political polarization acts as a chronic psychological stressor

Abstract

This paper uses daily Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the causal effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a highly competitive race whose outcome resolved lingering uncertainty on election day, on mental-health and life-satisfaction outcomes through a regression discontinuity design. Following the resolution of electoral uncertainty on election day, we find a sharp and persistent post-election decline in subjective well-being, concentrated among female, non-White, urban, and more-educated respondents. These findings reveal an expected-outcome shock, showing that political polarization itself, not electoral surprise, can act as a chronic psychological stressor.