Using ML-based Regression Techniques to Mitigate GOES Energetic Proton Flux Data Contamination and Magnetospheric Effects

TL;DR

This paper develops machine learning regression models to correct contamination in GOES proton flux data, aiming to produce cleaner measurements for better space weather analysis and SEP prediction.

Contribution

It introduces a novel regression-based correction method using SOHO-EPHIN data to improve GOES proton flux measurements across solar cycles.

Findings

Regression models effectively reconstruct clean proton fluxes.

The method reduces contamination and enhances data quality.

Potential to improve SEP event prediction accuracy.

Abstract

Positioned at geostationary orbit (GEO) ~36,000 km above Earth, NOAA's GOES series has recorded real-time energetic proton flux measurements crucial for space weather monitoring for over three decades. Although machine learning models have advanced solar energetic particle (SEP) event prediction using GOES data, the sudden yet sparse nature of SEP events necessitates high-quality proton flux measurements. Previous studies have identified contamination issues in GOES data, when the presence of higher-energy protons can cause parasitic signals in lower-energy GOES channels and lead to artificially elevated fluxes in lower energy ranges (e.g., 10 - 50 MeV). As of now, no universal correction method has been implemented for the publicly available NOAA data. In addition, the effects of Earth's magnetosphere on the 10 - 50 MeV particles are not fully understood yet. This study assesses a reconstruction method using concurrent solar proton event (SPE) measurements from SOHO-EPHIN, which align well with GOES measurements of SPEs across solar cycles 23 and the bulk of cycle 24, but represent the off-magnetospheric environment of the Lagrange 1 point. We train regression models on GOES proton fluxes across multiple energy bins, employing EPHIN fluxes as prediction targets. We expect that similar approaches can allow us to derive non-contaminated flux proxies that preserve valuable data and more accurately capture the characteristics of SPEs, providing a more stable dataset for analyzing SEP behavior and potentially improving SEP event prediction models.