Vector Traits Shape Disease Persistence: A Predator Prey Approach to Dengue

TL;DR

This study models dengue transmission dynamics using a predator-prey framework, revealing how vector immune constraints influence disease persistence and evolution under environmental pressures.

Contribution

It introduces a predator-prey model to analyze vector-pathogen interactions, demonstrating the stability of endemic conditions and biological trade-offs affecting vector evolution.

Findings

Endemic conditions naturally emerge from vector-pathogen interactions.

High vector competence cannot be offset by immune responses during outbreaks.

Vectors evolve increased transmission potential but cannot enhance immune capacity.

Abstract

Dengue continues to pose a major global threat, infecting nearly 390 million people annually. Recognizing the pivotal role of vector competence (vc), recent research focuses on mosquito parameters to inform transmission modeling and vector control strategies.This study models interactions between Aedes vectors and dengue pathogens, highlighting vc as a key driver of within vector infection dynamics and endemic persistence. Using a predator prey framework, we show that endemic conditions emerge naturally from the biological interplay between the vectors strategies to pathogen pressure and we prove global stability of such conditions. Our results reveal that under tropical and subtropical environmental pressures, the innate immune system of vectors cannot offset high vc during endemic outbreaks, highlighting a fundamental biological trade off, vectors can evolve increased transmission potential but cannot enhance immune capacity. This constraint defines the limits of their evolutionary response to pathogen driven selection and drives instability in disease transmission dynamics.