Assessing Climate Vulnerability Risk for Substations in Massachusetts Via Sensitivity Analysis

TL;DR

This paper develops a cost-effective, data-driven framework using sensitivity analysis and geospatial data to assess climate vulnerability risks for electrical substations, aiding targeted resilience investments.

Contribution

It introduces a novel, integrated approach combining hazard-specific assessments and sensitivity analysis for climate risk evaluation of substations.

Findings

Thresholds for climate hazards are highly sensitive, affecting mitigation scope.

High-fidelity climate projections are essential for accurate risk assessment.

The framework is practical and adaptable for climate adaptation planning.

Abstract

The electric grid is increasingly vital, supporting essential services such as healthcare, heating and cooling transportation, telecommunications, and water systems. This growing dependence on reliable power underscores the need for enhanced grid resilience. This study presents Eversource's Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) for bulk distribution substations in Massachusetts, evaluating risks from storm surge, sea level rise, precipitation, and extreme temperatures. The focus is on developing a cost-efficient model to guide targeted resilience investments. This is achieved by overcoming the limitations of single-variable analyses through hazard-specific assessments that integrate spatial, climate, electrical asset, and other relevant data; and applying sensitivity analysis to establish data-driven thresholds for actionable climate risks. By integrating geospatial analysis and data modeling with power engineering principles, this study provides a practical and replicable framework for equitable, data-informed climate adaptation planning. The results indicate that thresholds for certain climate hazards can be highly sensitive and result in significantly larger sets of stations requiring mitigation measures to adequately adapt to climate change, indicating that high-fidelity long-term climate projections are critical.