The Future Orchid Diversity of Great Britain and Ireland using an SDM Approach
Sofoklis Mouratidis, Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis, Martha Charitonidou, John M. Halley

TL;DR
This study uses Species Distribution Models to forecast significant future declines in orchid diversity across Great Britain and Ireland due to climate change and land-use modifications, highlighting conservation challenges.
Contribution
It introduces a high-resolution SDM approach incorporating future climate and land-use scenarios to predict orchid range contractions and diversity losses.
Findings
Projected species richness declines by 2050 and 2070
Vulnerable species at risk of extinction by 2070
Regional differences with some areas showing potential gains
Abstract
In this paper we use Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to forecast the future diversity and distribution of orchids in Great Britain and Ireland under scenarios of climate and land-use change. The study analyzes occurrence data for native orchid taxa in the BSBI database at a fine spatial resolution (1 km^2, monads) and incorporates multiple environmental variables including climate, land use, topography, and soil. These SDMs project significant losses in orchid species richness by 2050 and 2070, especially under severe climate and land-use scenarios, with declines expected across most species and regions, including Ireland where historical data previously indicated gains. The models reveal vulnerable species likely to face extinction by 2070, emphasizing the impact of both climate warming and habitat modifications. This approach differs from previous trend-based analyses by…
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Taxonomy
TopicsSpecies Distribution and Climate Change · Plant and animal studies · Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
