A New Lens on the Sustainability of the AI Revolution

TL;DR

This paper proposes the Economic Productivity of Energy (EPE) as a new metric to evaluate the sustainability of the AI revolution, highlighting historical patterns and advocating for transparent monitoring to ensure energy-efficient growth.

Contribution

It introduces EPE as a novel quantitative lens for assessing AI sustainability and analyzes cross-country data to identify trends and policy implications.

Findings

Advanced economies show linear growth in EPE.

EPE correlates with economic contribution and energy use.

Monitoring EPE can prevent energy-inefficient growth.

Abstract

We introduce the Economic Productivity of Energy (EPE), GDP generated per unit of energy consumed, as a quantitative lens to assess the sustainability of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution. Historical evidence shows that the first industrial revolution, pre-scientific in the sense that technological adoption preceded scientific understanding, initially disrupted this ratio: EPE collapsed as profits outpaced efficiency, with poorly integrated technologies, and recovered only with the rise of scientific knowledge and societal adaptation. Later industrial revolutions, such as electrification and microelectronics, grounded in established scientific theory, did not exhibit comparable declines. Today's AI revolution, highly profitable yet energy-intensive, remains pre-scientific and may follow a similar trajectory in EPE. We combine this conceptual discussion with cross-country EPE data spanning the last three decades. We find that the advanced economies exhibit a consistent linear growth in EPE: those countries are the ones that contribute most to global GDP production and energy consumption, and are expected to be the most affected by the AI transition. Therefore, we advocate for regular monitoring of EPE: transparent reporting of AI-related energy use and productivity-linked incentives can expose hidden energy costs and prevent efficiency-blind economic expansion. Embedding EPE within sustainability frameworks would help align technological innovation with energy productivity, a critical condition for sustainable growth.