Which Top Energy-Intensive Manufacturing Countries Can Compete in a Renewable Energy Future?

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how renewable energy conditions influence the future competitiveness of top manufacturing countries, highlighting the importance of energy and transport costs, capital assumptions, and import strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a detailed energy system model to quantify the Renewable Pull and examines its variability across countries and policy scenarios.

Findings

China, India, and Japan face a stronger Renewable Pull than Germany and the US.

Capital costs significantly affect a country's Renewable Pull, reducing Germany's effect by a factor of six.

Targeted import strategies can nearly eliminate the Renewable Pull, aiding policymakers.

Abstract

In a world increasingly powered by renewables and aiming for greenhouse gas-neutral industrial production, the future competitiveness of todays top manufacturing countries is questioned. This study applies detailed energy system modeling to quantify the Renewable Pull, an incentive for industry relocation exerted by countries with favorable renewable conditions. Results reveal that the Renewable Pull is not a cross-industrial phenomenon but strongly depends on the relationship between energy costs and transport costs. The intensity of the Renewable Pull varies, with China, India, and Japan facing a significantly stronger effect than Germany and the United States. Incorporating national capital cost assumptions proves critical, reducing Germanys Renewable Pull by a factor of six and positioning it as the second least affected top manufacturing country after Saudi Arabia. Using Germany as a case study, the analysis moreover illustrates that targeted import strategies, especially within the EU, can nearly eliminate the Renewable Pull, offering policymakers clear options for risk mitigation.