Analyzing Swing States in Presidential Elections: The Case of Wisconsin

TL;DR

This study analyzes county-level voting patterns in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2024, revealing spatial heterogeneity and urban influence on electoral shifts in this key swing state.

Contribution

It provides a detailed quantitative analysis of voting pattern changes and spatial clustering in Wisconsin's elections, highlighting urban-rural divides.

Findings

Strong clustering of vote changes in urban counties

North-south divide in voting trends

Urban mobilization significantly impacts statewide results

Abstract

This paper quantitatively analyzes county-level voting patterns in Wisconsin's presidential elections from 2000 to 2024. As a pivotal swing state, Wisconsin has alternated between Democratic and Republican candidates since 2012. Using data from the Wisconsin Elections Commission, we examine vote totals across 72 counties and seven election cycles. Pearson correlations measure similarity in county voting trajectories, while choropleth maps visualize spatial shifts. Results show strong clustering of vote changes: Democratic and Republican gains between 2016 and 2020 were concentrated in southeastern urban and suburban counties, with rural areas showing little change. Correlations reveal a north-south divide, as southern counties exhibit similar trends and northern ones diverge. These findings highlight spatial heterogeneity in electoral dynamics and the decisive role of urban mobilization in statewide outcomes.