Fire Behavior Monitoring using MeteoSat Third Generation, FCI-FireDyn algorithm: Rate Of Spread and Burnt Area Dynamics for large fire event

TL;DR

This paper introduces FCI-FireDyn, an innovative algorithm utilizing Meteosat Third Generation satellite data to monitor wildfire spread and burn area dynamics at high temporal and spatial resolution, aiding real-time fire management.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel algorithm that derives fire spread and burn area metrics from geostationary satellite data with high temporal resolution, demonstrating its effectiveness on real wildfire events.

Findings

Accurately estimates fire spread and burn area with deviations below 20%.

Captures distinct fire propagation phases, including acceleration episodes.

Provides high-frequency fire behavior metrics suitable for operational use.

Abstract

This study presents FCI-FireDyn, a new algorithm developed to monitor wildfire dynamics using the Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) onboard the Meteosat Third Generation satellite. Leveraging the high temporal resolution of FCI (10-minute full-disk observations), the algorithm derives fire arrival time maps, rate of spread (ROS), and Burn Area (BA) evolution at sub-kilometer spatial resolution and 2-minute temporal intervals. The method combines threshold-based MWIR detection, spatio-temporal interpolation to reconstruct fire front progression and ROS fields at 175 m resolution. FCI-FireDyn was tested on three major fire events in Southern Europe (Portugal, Greece, and France) from the 2024 2025 seasons. The retrieved BA and Fire Growth Rate show good agreement with reference datasets from EFFIS, Copernicus EMS, and PT-FireSprd, with total final BA deviations below 20%. The algorithm captures distinct propagation phases, including acceleration episodes that precede FRP peaks, highlighting a potential for NRT fire behavior monitoring. Despite limitations due to FCI spatial resolution, results demonstrate that it provides sufficient spatio-temporal coverage to estimate front-scale fire dynamics. FCI-FireDyn thus represents a proof of concept for deriving high-frequency fire behavior metrics from geostationary observations to support operational and modeling applications.