Short-Run Multi-Outcome Effects of Nightlife Regulation in San Juan

TL;DR

This study assesses the short-term impacts of San Juan's nightlife regulation using a multi-outcome synthetic control method, revealing sector reallocations but no significant effects on public disorder or violence.

Contribution

It introduces a multi-outcome synthetic control approach with a common-weight estimator to clarify mechanisms under low-rank outcome structures.

Findings

Reallocations in restaurants, bars, gasoline, and hospitality sectors

No significant change in public disorder arrests or violent crime

Emphasizes effect size and temporal persistence over statistical significance

Abstract

I evaluate San Juan, Puerto Rico's late-night alcohol sales ordinance using a multi-outcome synthetic control that pools economic and public-safety series. I show that a common-weight estimator clarifies mechanisms under low-rank outcome structure. I find economically meaningful reallocations in targeted sectors -- restaurants and bars, gasoline and convenience, and hospitality employment -- while late-night public disorder arrests and violent crime show no clear departures from pre-policy trends. The short post-policy window and small donor pool limit statistical power; joint conformal and permutation tests do not reject the null at conventional thresholds. I therefore emphasize effect magnitudes, temporal persistence, and pre-trend fit over formal significance. Code and diagnostics are available for replication.