AI-Driven Carbon Monitoring: Transformer-Based Reconstruction of Atmospheric CO2 in Canadian Poultry Regions

TL;DR

This paper introduces a transformer-based model that reconstructs continuous, uncertainty-quantified atmospheric CO2 fields over Canadian poultry regions, improving accuracy and coverage for emission monitoring and mitigation strategies.

Contribution

The study presents a novel Spatiotemporal Vision Transformer with Wavelets (ST-ViWT) framework that fuses wavelet representations with transformer attention for high-accuracy CO2 mapping from satellite data.

Findings

Achieves R2 = 0.984 and RMSE = 0.468 ppm on 2024 OCO-2 data.

92.3% of predictions are within +/-1 ppm, demonstrating high accuracy.

Validates robustness with TCCON data, showing reliable generalization.

Abstract

Accurate mapping of column-averaged CO2 (XCO2) over agricultural landscapes is essential for guiding emission mitigation strategies. We present a Spatiotemporal Vision Transformer with Wavelets (ST-ViWT) framework that reconstructs continuous, uncertainty-quantified XCO2 fields from OCO-2 across southern Canada, emphasizing poultry-intensive regions. The model fuses wavelet time-frequency representations with transformer attention over meteorology, vegetation indices, topography, and land cover. On 2024 OCO-2 data, ST-ViWT attains R2 = 0.984 and RMSE = 0.468 ppm; 92.3 percent of gap-filled predictions lie within +/-1 ppm. Independent validation with TCCON shows robust generalization (bias = -0.14 ppm; r = 0.928), including faithful reproduction of the late-summer drawdown. Spatial analysis across 14 poultry regions reveals a moderate positive association between facility density and XCO2 (r = 0.43); high-density areas exhibit larger seasonal amplitudes (9.57 ppm) and enhanced summer variability. Compared with conventional interpolation and standard machine-learning baselines, ST-ViWT yields seamless 0.25 degree CO2 surfaces with explicit uncertainties, enabling year-round coverage despite sparse observations. The approach supports integration of satellite constraints with national inventories and precision livestock platforms to benchmark emissions, refine region-specific factors, and verify interventions. Importantly, transformer-based Earth observation enables scalable, transparent, spatially explicit carbon accounting, hotspot prioritization, and policy-relevant mitigation assessment.