Effectiveness of cardinality-return weighted maximum independent set approach for financial portfolio optimization

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel graph theory-based portfolio optimization method, CR-WMIS, that improves return and risk management over traditional models by selecting weakly correlated stocks and weighting them by expected returns, validated through five-year backtesting.

Contribution

The study proposes the CR-WMIS model combining maximum independent set and weighted independent set concepts to address limitations of mean-variance optimization.

Findings

CR-WMIS outperforms traditional MIS and WMIS models in return and risk metrics.

The method demonstrates superior performance compared to the S&P 500 index.

Backtesting confirms the model's robustness over five years.

Abstract

The portfolio optimization problem is a critical issue in asset management and has long been studied. Markowitz's mean-variance model has fundamental limitations, such as the assumption of a normal distribution for returns and sensitivity to estimation errors in input parameters. In this research, we propose a novel graph theory-based approach, the cardinality-return weighted maximum independent set (CR-WMIS) model, to overcome these limitations. The CR-WMIS model pursues the optimization of both return and risk characteristics. It integrates the risk diversification effect by selecting the largest number of weakly correlated stocks, a feature of the maximum independent set (MIS) model, with the weighting effect based on expected returns from the weighted maximum independent set (WMIS) model. We validated the effectiveness of the proposed method through a five-year backtesting simulation (April 2019 - March 2024) using real market data from the S&P 500. For this task, we employed a simulated-bifurcation-based solver for finding high-quality solutions to large-scale combinatorial optimization problems. In our evaluation, we conducted a comprehensive risk assessment, which has not been sufficiently explored in previous MIS and WMIS studies. The results demonstrate that the CR-WMIS model exhibits superiority in both return and risk characteristics compared to the conventional MIS and WMIS models, as well as the market index (S&P 500). This study provides a practical portfolio optimization method that overcomes the theoretical limitations of the mean-variance model, contributing to both the advancement of academic theory and the support of practical investment decision-making.