Temporal Graph Theoretic Analysis of Geopolitical Dynamics in the U.S. Entity List

TL;DR

This paper introduces a temporal graph framework to analyze the evolving geopolitical strategies behind the U.S. Entity List, revealing dynamic patterns and insights into export control mechanisms over 25 years.

Contribution

It presents the first event-based dataset and a novel temporal bipartite graph model to analyze the U.S. Entity List's geopolitical dynamics.

Findings

Revealed patterns of escalation, persistence, and coordination in export controls.

Demonstrated the effectiveness of temporal graph analysis for geopolitical studies.

Uncovered shifts in enforcement strategies over time.

Abstract

Export controls have become one of America's most prominent tools of economic statecraft. They aim to block rival countries' access to sensitive technologies, safeguard U.S. supply chains, protect national security, and shape geopolitical competition. Among various instruments, the U.S. Entity List has emerged as the most salient, yet its dynamics remain underexplored. This paper introduces a novel temporal graph framework that transforms the Entity List documents from a static registry of foreign entities of concern into a dynamic representation of geopolitical strategy. We construct the first event-based dataset of U.S. government foreign entity designations and model them as a temporal bipartite graph. Building on this representation, we develop a multi-level analytical approach that reveals shifting roles, enforcement strategy, and broader sanction ecosystems. Applied to 25 years of data, the framework uncovers dynamic patterns of escalation, persistence, and coordination that static views cannot capture. More broadly, our study demonstrates how temporal graph analysis offers systematic computational insights into the geopolitical dynamics of export controls.