Bridging Prediction and Attribution: Identifying Forward and Backward Causal Influence Ranges Using Assimilative Causal Inference

TL;DR

This paper introduces a rigorous framework using assimilative causal inference to identify and quantify the temporal ranges of causal influence in complex dynamical systems, enhancing understanding of cause-effect relationships over time.

Contribution

It develops mathematically rigorous formulations and efficient algorithms for forward and backward causal influence ranges, advancing causal attribution in nonlinear dynamical systems.

Findings

Demonstrates the framework's effectiveness in probing Earth system tipping points.

Provides new insights into atmospheric blocking mechanisms.

Enables robust causal attribution without empirical thresholds.

Abstract

Causal inference identifies cause-and-effect relationships between variables. While traditional approaches rely on data to reveal causal links, a recently developed method, assimilative causal inference (ACI), integrates observations with dynamical models. It utilizes Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes back from observed effects by quantifying the reduction in uncertainty. ACI advances the detection of instantaneous causal relationships and the intermittent reversal of causal roles over time. Beyond identifying causal connections, an equally important challenge is determining the associated causal influence range (CIR), indicating when causal influences emerged and for how long they persist. In this paper, ACI is employed to develop mathematically rigorous formulations of both forward and backward CIRs at each time. The forward CIR quantifies the temporal impact of a cause, while the backward CIR traces the onset of triggers for an observed effect, thus characterizing causal predictability and attribution of outcomes at each transient phase, respectively. Objective and robust metrics for both CIRs are introduced, eliminating the need for empirical thresholds. Computationally efficient approximation algorithms to compute CIRs are developed, which facilitate the use of closed-form expressions for a broad class of nonlinear dynamical systems. Numerical simulations demonstrate how this forward and backward CIR framework provides new possibilities for probing complex dynamical systems. It advances the study of bifurcation-driven and noise-induced tipping points in Earth systems, investigates the impact from resolving the interfering variables when determining the influence ranges, and elucidates atmospheric blocking mechanisms in the equatorial region. These results have direct implications for science, policy, and decision-making.