Impacts of Climate Change on Photovoltaic Potential in Africa

TL;DR

This study analyzes how climate change has affected Africa's solar photovoltaic potential over four decades, revealing regional variations in potential and stability, and offering strategic insights for resilient solar deployment.

Contribution

It provides a detailed, data-driven assessment of climate change impacts on Africa's PV potential, highlighting regional differences and stability challenges for future solar energy strategies.

Findings

Africa's PV potential increased by 3.2% from 1980 to 2020.

East Africa's PV potential gained over 6% due to radiation enhancement.

High-irradiance subtropical zones are highly variable, affecting reliability.

Abstract

Africa holds the world's highest solar irradiance yet has <2% of global photovoltaic (PV) capacity, leaving 600 million people without electricity access. However, climate change impacts on its 10 TW potential remain understudied. Using four decades of ERA5 reanalysis data (1980-2020) at 0.25 degree resolution, we quantify the contributions of key climate factors to historical changes in African PV potential through multivariate decomposition. Continental PV potential increased by 3.2%, driven primarily by enhanced solar radiation (+1.2 degree Celsius, contributing -23%). East Africa gained >6% from radiation enhancement, while North Africa declined by 0.5% as extreme heat (+2 degree Celsius) overwhelmed radiation benefits. Critically, stability analysis using the coefficient of variation (CV) reveals that high-irradiance subtropical zones are highly variable (CV=0.4), in contrast to stable equatorial regions (CV=0.1), challenging the assumption that resource abundance ensures reliability. These findings reframe Africa's solar strategy: North Africa requires prioritizing heat-resilient technology over capacity maximization; subtropical zones demand grid-storage co-investment; and East Africa presents globally competitive opportunities for rapid, stable deployment. By resolving spatiotemporal heterogeneities and quantifying climate-driver contributions, our analysis provides an actionable framework for climate-resilient solar deployment, critical for Africa's energy transition and climate mitigation.