Acoustic Emission Cascade Predicting Progression to Failure of Rock and Bone

TL;DR

This study investigates acoustic emission patterns in rock and bone under stress, revealing a cascade process that predicts failure times with sufficient warning for safety and medical interventions.

Contribution

It introduces a coupled power-law failure cascade model for AE rates in brittle materials, enabling failure prediction in rock and bone under fixed loading conditions.

Findings

AE rates follow a power-law cascade before failure.

Failure prediction accuracy is within 30% of total lifetime.

Warning times range from 30 seconds to two days.

Abstract

Quasi brittle materials such as rock and bone are understood to fail via microcrack coalescence. The accompanying Acoustic Emission (AE) event rate is known to increase as failure progresses. Here we examine the progression of the AE event rate for both rock and bone under conditions where failure progresses under fixed loading. The experiments for rock entail subjecting granite beams to a fixed loading under three point bending and monitoring the time-dependent failure. For bone, human cadaver skulls are loaded under pinning loads similar to those used for immobilization of the head for neurosurgical procedures. AE rates are shown to be consistent with a rate dependent material failure law including a quasi-linear cascade of the inverse AE energy rate in the lead up to failure that is shown here to arise because of a coupling wherein a response rate is a power law of a driver and the driver is, in turn, a power law of the accumulated response. For both materials and experimental configurations this cascade provides warning of impending failure. For granite beams there is accurate prediction of failure time over the final 30 percent of the specimens lifetimes, which ranged from 35 seconds to two days. For skull fracture, the commencement of the failure cascade provides 30-70 seconds for warning of failure, which would be sufficient for basic remedial action to avoid patient injury in a surgical application.