The Long-Term Impact of Direct Capture Approaches to Carbon Dioxide Removal

TL;DR

This paper models and analyzes the long-term effects of direct ocean capture (DOC) for carbon dioxide removal, comparing it with direct air capture (DAC) and exploring their potential integration for climate mitigation.

Contribution

It introduces a kinetic system model for DOC, analyzes conditions for multiple steady states and robustness, and compares DOC with DAC to inform sustainable CDR strategies.

Findings

Multiple steady states and tipping points identified in DOC model.

Conditions for concentration robustness in carbon pools established.

Comparative analysis highlights complementary roles of DOC and DAC.

Abstract

Understanding the similarities and differences of the long term impact of different carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques is essential in determining the most effective and sustainable strategies to mitigate climate change. In particular, direct ocean capture (DOC) has emerged as a promising approach. In contrast to direct air capture (DAC) which separates carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, DOC performs the separation directly from seawater before storing it in geological reservoirs. In this study, we construct and analyze a kinetic system for CDR via DOC using chemical reaction network theory. Our analysis reveals the necessary conditions for the existence of positive steady states and highlights the potential for multistationarity, where the carbon cycle may admit multiple positive steady states, emphasizing the critical importance of addressing tipping points, thresholds beyond which the system could undergo irreversible changes. Furthermore, we examine conditions under which certain carbon pools exhibit absolute concentration robustness, remaining resistant to change regardless of initial conditions. We also determine the conditions for the carbon reduction capability of the model with the DOC intervention. Importantly, a comparative analysis is then presented, where we compare the DOC model with the well-established DAC model by Fortun et al., and explore an integrated DOC-DAC approach for CDR. This comparison is important given that DAC is already being implemented in large-scale projects, while DOC remains in its early stages with limited trials and is geographically constrained to oceanic vicinity. Our comparative modeling framework provides valuable insights into the long-term impacts and complementary roles of DOC, DAC, and their integration into broader CDR strategies for climate mitigation.