A Climate-Aware Deep Learning Framework for Generalizable Epidemic Forecasting

TL;DR

This paper introduces ForecastNet-XCL, a climate-aware deep learning ensemble model that accurately predicts multi-week RSV outbreaks up to 100 weeks in advance, leveraging climate and temporal data without real-time surveillance.

Contribution

The work presents a novel hybrid deep learning framework combining XGBoost, CNN, and BiLSTM for long-range epidemic forecasting, addressing the gap in endemic disease prediction.

Findings

Outperformed statistical and neural baselines in US state forecasts.

Maintained accuracy over extended forecast horizons.

Enhanced generalization with diverse climate data.

Abstract

Precise outbreak forecasting of infectious diseases is essential for effective public health responses and epidemic control. The increased availability of machine learning (ML) methods for time-series forecasting presents an enticing avenue to enhance outbreak forecasting. Though the COVID-19 outbreak demonstrated the value of applying ML models to predict epidemic profiles, using ML models to forecast endemic diseases remains underexplored. In this work, we present ForecastNet-XCL (an ensemble model based on XGBoost+CNN+BiLSTM), a deep learning hybrid framework designed to addresses this gap by creating accurate multi-week RSV forecasts up to 100 weeks in advance based on climate and temporal data, without access to real-time surveillance on RSV. The framework combines high-resolution feature learning with long-range temporal dependency capturing mechanisms, bolstered by an autoregressive module trained on climate-controlled lagged relations. Stochastic inference returns probabilistic intervals to inform decision-making. Evaluated across 34 U.S. states, ForecastNet-XCL reliably outperformed statistical baselines, individual neural nets, and conventional ensemble methods in both within- and cross-state scenarios, sustaining accuracy over extended forecast horizons. Training on climatologically diverse datasets enhanced generalization furthermore, particularly in locations having irregular or biennial RSV patterns. ForecastNet-XCL's efficiency, performance, and uncertainty-aware design make it a deployable early-warning tool amid escalating climate pressures and constrained surveillance resources.