Probing cosmology with bright sirens from the CosmoDC2_BCO LSST synthetic catalog

TL;DR

This paper forecasts how future gravitational-wave and supernova observations can precisely measure cosmic expansion and dark energy properties, highlighting the potential of third-generation detectors combined with Roman-like supernova surveys.

Contribution

It provides detailed predictions for cosmological constraints achievable with upcoming GW and supernova data, emphasizing the importance of third-generation detectors and combined analyses.

Findings

Third-generation GW detectors can measure H_0 to 0.2% precision within a decade.

Combining supernovae with GW data improves dark energy parameter constraints.

Sky localization of GW sources has only mild impact on follow-up strategies.

Abstract

Bright sirens, i.e. gravitational-wave detections of compact binary mergers with electromagnetic counterparts, provide a self-calibrated distance-redshift relation and are therefore powerful probes of cosmic expansion. Using the CosmoDC2_BCO catalog, we forecast cosmological constraints from current (LVK) and next-generation (ET, CE) detector networks, in combination with a Roman-like Type Ia supernova sample. We find that third-generation networks reach sub-percent precision on the Hubble constant within a few years, achieving 0.2% after a decade with CE+ET+LVK, while LVK remains limited to the 6% level. The LVK fifth observing run may shed light on the H_0 tension only if the inferred value falls outside the range spanned by the Planck and SH0ES determinations, which currently achieve far higher precisions. Supernovae do not directly tighten H_0 but stabilize its inference through parameter correlations and enable an absolute calibration of the supernova magnitude M_B. In dynamical dark-energy models, the joint analysis of Roman supernovae and bright sirens yields a Figure of Merit of 25 for ET+LVK and 76 for CE+ET+LVK, to be compared with the state-of-the-art DESI DR2 BAO plus DESY5 supernovae value of 56. Sky-localization thresholds of DeltaOmega < 50 deg^2, or even DeltaOmega < 10 deg^2, entail only mild penalties, suggesting efficient follow-up strategies. These results establish third-generation GW+EM observations, especially when combined with Roman supernovae, as a cornerstone for precision cosmology in the next decade.