Probing cosmology with bright sirens from the CosmoDC2_BCO LSST synthetic catalog
Ranier Menote, Valerio Marra

TL;DR
This paper forecasts how future gravitational-wave and supernova observations can precisely measure cosmic expansion and dark energy properties, highlighting the potential of third-generation detectors combined with Roman-like supernova surveys.
Contribution
It provides detailed predictions for cosmological constraints achievable with upcoming GW and supernova data, emphasizing the importance of third-generation detectors and combined analyses.
Findings
Third-generation GW detectors can measure H_0 to 0.2% precision within a decade.
Combining supernovae with GW data improves dark energy parameter constraints.
Sky localization of GW sources has only mild impact on follow-up strategies.
Abstract
Bright sirens, i.e. gravitational-wave detections of compact binary mergers with electromagnetic counterparts, provide a self-calibrated distance-redshift relation and are therefore powerful probes of cosmic expansion. Using the CosmoDC2_BCO catalog, we forecast cosmological constraints from current (LVK) and next-generation (ET, CE) detector networks, in combination with a Roman-like Type Ia supernova sample. We find that third-generation networks reach sub-percent precision on the Hubble constant within a few years, achieving 0.2% after a decade with CE+ET+LVK, while LVK remains limited to the 6% level. The LVK fifth observing run may shed light on the H_0 tension only if the inferred value falls outside the range spanned by the Planck and SH0ES determinations, which currently achieve far higher precisions. Supernovae do not directly tighten H_0 but stabilize its inference through…
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