Are penalty shootouts better than a coin toss? Evidence from international club football in Europe

TL;DR

This study investigates whether penalty shootouts in European football are essentially random, finding no significant predictors of success and suggesting they are as unpredictable as a coin toss.

Contribution

The paper provides empirical evidence that penalty shootout outcomes in UEFA competitions are not predictable based on order, location, momentum, or team strength.

Findings

No effect of kicking order, match location, or momentum on shootout success.

No relationship between success and team strength measured by Elo ratings.

Penalty shootouts are statistically indistinguishable from a coin toss.

Abstract

Penalty shootouts play a crucial role in the knockout stage of major football tournaments. Their importance has substantially increased from the 2021/22 season, when the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) scrapped the away goals rule. Our paper examines whether the outcome of a penalty shootout can be predicted in UEFA club competitions. Based on all shootouts between 2000 and 2025, no evidence is found for the effect of the kicking order, the field of the match, or psychological momentum. In contrast to previous results, we do not detect any relationship between shootout success and relative team strength, quantified by differences in Elo ratings and the implied winning probability. Thus, the hypothesis that penalty shootouts are close to a coin toss in international competitions for European football clubs cannot be rejected.