Temporally Detailed Hypergraph Neural ODEs for Disease Progression Modeling

TL;DR

This paper introduces TD-HNODE, a novel hypergraph neural ODE model that captures detailed disease progression dynamics from irregular clinical data, improving predictions for diseases like type 2 diabetes.

Contribution

The paper presents a new hypergraph neural ODE framework with a learnable Laplacian for modeling complex, continuous-time disease progression trajectories from real-world EHR data.

Findings

TD-HNODE outperforms baselines in modeling type 2 diabetes progression.

The model effectively captures interdependencies among disease markers.

Experiments demonstrate improved prediction accuracy on clinical datasets.

Abstract

Disease progression modeling aims to characterize and predict how a patient's disease complications worsen over time based on longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). For diseases such as type 2 diabetes, accurate progression modeling can enhance patient sub-phenotyping and inform effective and timely interventions. However, the problem is challenging due to the need to learn continuous-time progression dynamics from irregularly sampled clinical events amid patient heterogeneity (e.g., different progression rates and pathways). Existing mechanistic and data-driven methods either lack adaptability to learn from real-world data or fail to capture complex continuous-time dynamics on progression trajectories. To address these limitations, we propose Temporally Detailed Hypergraph Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (TD-HNODE), which represents disease progression on clinically recognized trajectories as a temporally detailed hypergraph and learns the continuous-time progression dynamics via a neural ODE framework. TD-HNODE contains a learnable TD-Hypergraph Laplacian that captures the interdependency of disease complication markers within both intra- and inter-progression trajectories. Experiments on two real-world clinical datasets demonstrate that TD-HNODE outperforms multiple baselines in modeling the progression of type 2 diabetes and related cardiovascular diseases.