Critical Iridium Demands arising from future Expansion of Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolysis

TL;DR

This paper analyzes future iridium demand for proton exchange membrane electrolysis, highlighting potential supply shortages by 2030 and emphasizing the need for technological innovation and resource management for sustainable green hydrogen production.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive estimation of iridium demand under various PEMEL deployment scenarios and highlights potential supply risks and the necessity for material efficiency improvements.

Findings

Significant iridium demand could reach 30% of global supply by 2030.

Supply shortages may occur earlier than previously expected, around 2030.

Long-term iridium needs are underestimated beyond 2040.

Abstract

Proton exchange membrane electrolysis (PEMEL) is a key technology for producing green hydrogen, but its scalability is limited by the use of scarce materials, particularly iridium. Iridium oxide, the preferred anode catalyst in PEMEL, offers exceptional stability but is produced only as a by-product of platinum mining, with annual output around 7.5 tons. This study estimates future iridium demand for PEMEL under various deployment scenarios and technological advances. Results show that meeting net zero targets will require both significant improvements in catalyst efficiency and access to roughly 30\% of global iridium production annually. Supply shortages could arise as early as 2030, earlier than previously anticipated. The analysis also reveals that long-term iridium needs beyond 2040 are significantly underestimated. These findings underscore the urgent need for innovation in material efficiency and recycling, and the importance of integrating resource constraints into energy policy and technology planning to ensure a sustainable hydrogen transition.