Statistical study of the transcript of vote counts in multi-member constituencies: Identifying electoral fraud and reconstructing voting returns

TL;DR

This paper introduces new statistical methods to analyze vote count transcripts in municipal elections, aiming to detect electoral fraud, assess transcript credibility, and reconstruct voting results at the precinct level.

Contribution

The paper develops novel statistical tests and models for identifying ballot stuffing, differentiating falsifications, and reconstructing voting outcomes in multi-member constituencies.

Findings

Effective statistical tests for ballot stuffing detection

Indicators for transcript credibility assessment

Reconstruction of voting results at precinct level

Abstract

We propose new methods of electoral statistics. With their help, we study transcripts of vote counting in municipal elections. We construct and apply effective statistical tests to detect the ballot stuffing at the level of individual candidates and ballots as a whole. We study the difference between falsifications for the administration and against the opposition. We construct indicators assessing the credibility of transcripts as a whole. We propose a model of voter behavior to reconstruct the results of multi-member voting at the level of an individual precinct. We carry out an independent verification of the reconstruction.