Generalized Stochastic Resilience for Early Warning Signals Based on Koopman Operator

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel method using the Koopman operator to improve early warning signals for tipping points in complex systems, enhancing robustness and accuracy in predictions.

Contribution

It generalizes stochastic resilience theory with Koopman operator techniques, enabling better detection of early warning signals near bifurcation points.

Findings

More accurate prediction of tipping events

Enhanced robustness over traditional methods

Effective separation of noise and spectral contributions

Abstract

Developing methods for detecting tipping phenomena at an early stage is an important problem in various fields such as ecology, medicine, and economics. A tipping phenomenon is characterized by a rapid transition resulting from the accumulation of small parameter changes and is known to be related to bifurcations of dynamical systems. However, few studies have examined how nonlinear properties near bifurcation points affect early warning signal (EWS) performance. In this study, we apply the Koopman operator, which describes the time evolution of dynamical systems in an infinite-dimensional function space, to generalize stochastic resilience the theoretical basis of EWSs such as variance-based ones. As a result, we develop a novel signal capable of more accurately predicting tipping events by separately isolating stochastic fluctuations induced by noise and contributions from a continuous spectrum emerging immediately above tipping points. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach detects early signs of tipping phenomena more robustly than conventional methods.