On the analysis of eruptive events with non-radial evolution

TL;DR

This paper investigates the early deflection of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) caused by magnetic field structures, introducing new analysis techniques and validating a topological path method to improve prediction of their non-radial trajectories.

Contribution

It presents improved tracking and a novel application of the topological path method for analyzing CME deflections, enhancing understanding of magnetic guidance mechanisms.

Findings

Deflection dominated by magnetic field channeling

Topological path method effectively predicts CME trajectories

Validated analysis framework with a 2010 event case study

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are major drivers of space weather disturbances, and their deflection from the radial direction critically affects their potential impact on Earth. While the influence of the surrounding magnetic field in guiding CME trajectories is well established, accurately predicting non-radial propagation remains a challenge. In this work, we introduce and compare recently developed techniques for analyzing the early deflection of eruptive events. We revisit a largely deflected prominence-CME event of 2010 December 16 using an improved tracking framework and a new application of the topological path method. Our results suggest the deflection of the eruption is dominated by the channeling of the magnetic field lines. This study offers new physical insight into CME guidance mechanisms and validates the predictive capability of the topological path, highlighting its potential as a diagnostic tool for estimating the propagation direction of strongly deflected events.